CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T21:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 63.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2024-10-04T21:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 4 max_estimated_peak_K: 7 probability_of_arrival: 63Lead Time: 30.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-10-03T14:15Z
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